Newmarket 12:25: Value Analysis
Cologne's 65 Preis Von Europa British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes
Saturday 31 October 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Form in the book counts for plenty in a race full of newcomers: he has run well over his last three starts, Ed Walker's yard is 18% winners in the fortnight and Kieran Shoemark 13% in the last two months.
- ✓ Kieran Shoemark riding well, 13% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✓ Ed Walker's yard in form, 18% winners in the fortnight
- ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
IBTEKAR
★ Top Rated
evens
·market 50%
|
27% |
50% |
evens
|
-47% | |
| 2 |
NEXT BEST
11/2
·market 15%
|
16% |
15% |
11/2
|
+6% | |
| 3 |
ASTRAL MIST
16/1
·market 6%
|
9% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+61% | |
| 4 |
HEATHER WAY
16/1
·market 6%
|
8% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+42% | |
| 5 |
GORGONZOLA
40/1
·market 2%
|
8% |
2% |
40/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+220% | |
| 6 |
LA CONQUISTA
13/2
·market 13%
|
7% |
13% |
13/2
|
-47% | |
| 7 |
MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL
80/1
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
80/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+392%market disagrees | |
| 8 |
PALACE ROSE
22/1
·market 4%
|
6% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+29% | |
| 9 |
SO THIS IS LOVE
4/1
·market 20%
|
5% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-74% | |
| 10 |
TWITCHING
66/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+182% | |
| 11 |
MISS FAITHFULL
66/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
66/1
|
+114% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org