Worcester 12:10: Value Analysis
Copybet For Premier League Profit Boosts Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase
Sunday 1 November 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Ticks most boxes — a winner at this class, a strong record against these rivals and 26% for Sean Bowen with Olly Murphy, though he was second when he ran 230 days ago and fitness is unproven.
- ✓ Sean Bowen and Olly Murphy win 26% together
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ First run for 230 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
UP TO TRIX
★ Top Rated
5/1
·market 17%
|
12% |
17% |
5/1
|
-27% | |
| 2 |
JUKEBOX KING
9/2
·market 18%
|
12% |
18% |
9/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-35% | |
| 3 |
IN THE AGE
11/1
·market 8%
|
11% |
8% |
11/1
|
+31% | |
| 4 |
FIVE BAR GATE
12/1
·market 8%
|
11% |
8% |
12/1
|
+41% | |
| 5 |
MOSSY FEN COOLIO
11/2
·market 15%
|
9% |
15% |
11/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-39% | |
| 6 |
GRAND GARCON
15/2
·market 12%
|
8% |
12% |
15/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-35% | |
| 7 |
LEXIES MOON
33/1
·market 3%
|
6% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+91% | |
| 8 |
WINDSURFER
20/1
·market 5%
|
5% |
5% |
20/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+1% | |
| 9 |
LE SOLEIL REVE
33/1
·market 3%
|
5% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+62% | |
| 10 |
LASKO DES OBEAUX
14/1
·market 7%
|
5% |
7% |
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-31% | |
| 11 |
DYNAMITE DEFENSE
100/1
·market 1%
|
5% |
1% |
100/1
|
+356%market disagrees | |
| 12 |
JOYAU ALLEN
5/2
·market 29%
|
4% |
29% |
5/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-86% | |
| 13 |
GALEFORCECHOPPER
80/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
80/1
|
+143% | |
| 14 |
KASTELLION
14/1
·market 7%
|
3% |
7% |
14/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-56% | |
| 15 |
KEEP STAR
33/1
·market 3%
|
3% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-5% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org