Curragh 12:17: Value Analysis

Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)

Sunday 1 November 2026

Maiden SFT 8f Class 0 23 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Our highest-rated CHOCTAW NATION Our price 4/1 · Available 8/13 We make it 21% · the market says 64%

★ Best value ADVERSITY Our price 11/2 · Available 7/1 We make it 16% · the market says 12% · +26%

Why the model rates CHOCTAW NATION top (21% chance)

Strong claims across the board: Paddy Harnett and Aidan O'Brien win 33% together, a good record against this class of rival, and a second when running 25 days ago; only the trip raises a question.

✓ Paddy Harnett and Aidan O'Brien win 33% together
✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Yet to be tested against much
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	CHOCTAW NATION ★ Top Rated J: Paddy Harnett(3) · T: Aidan O'Brien Form: 2 8/13 ·market 64%	21%	64%	8/13	-68%
2	ADVERSITY J: Chris Hayes · T: Miss Natalia Lupini Form: 03 7/1 ·market 12%	16%	12%	7/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+26%
3	ETAWANN J: Ben Coen · T: J. P. Murtagh Form: 8 18/1 ·market 5%	12%	5%	18/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+129%
4	CRACKS AND SPARKS J: Donagh O'Connor · T: A Oliver Form: 5 22/1 ·market 4%	9%	4%	22/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+100%
5	SYSTEM RESET J: Andrew Slattery · T: W. P. Mullins Form: 09 100/1 ·market 1%	6%	1%	100/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+553%market disagrees
6	ROCK ON JOHNNY J: Cillian Rowan(10) · T: Adrian McGuinness Form: 85 125/1 ·market 1%	6%	1%	125/1	+632%market disagrees
7	BYZANTINE GOLD J: Leigh Roche · T: A. Slattery Form: 90 125/1 ·market 1%	5%	1%	125/1	+514%market disagrees
8	GRECIAN PEARL J: Nicola Burns(5) · T: Gerard Keane Form: 08 150/1 ·market 1%	4%	1%	150/1	+551%market disagrees
9	STATE OF PLAY J: J M Sheridan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien 11/1 ·market 8%	3%	8%	11/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-66%
10	ERICO J: Declan McDonogh · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien 28/1 ·market 3%	2%	3%	28/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-30%
11	THE PINTLINE J: Nathan Crosse · T: Martin Hassett Form: 0 150/1 ·market 1%	2%	1%	150/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+262%
12	TOO TOO MUCH J: Reese Holohan(5) · T: M D O'Callaghan 33/1 ·market 3%	2%	3%	33/1	-31%
13	FAVOUR ROYAL J: W. J. Lee · T: A Oliver 11/1 ·market 8%	2%	8%	11/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-78%
14	BOOK OF KELLS J: Jack Cleary(5) · T: Aidan O'Brien 7/1 ·market 12%	2%	12%	7/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-88%
15	PIERO MANZONI J: Liam Keniry · T: Aidan O'Brien 18/1 ·market 5%	1%	5%	18/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-74%
16	BLUE GLORY J: Jessica O'Gorman(7) · T: Aengus King Form: 90 200/1 ·market 0%	1%	0%	200/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+173%
17	THUNDER BAY J: Seamie Heffernan · T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien 25/1 ·market 4%	1%	4%	25/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-70%
18	WASSILY KANDINSKY J: Gavin Ryan · T: Aidan O'Brien 12/1 ·market 8%	1%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-87%
19	BRIGHT DREAM J: G. F. Carroll · T: Joseph G Murphy 50/1 ·market 2%	1%	2%	50/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-55%
20	ONE POINT FIVE J: Luke McAteer · T: Eoin Doyle Form: 0 200/1 ·market 0%	1%	0%	200/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+65%
21	EASTERN PASSAGE J: Gearoid Brouder(5) · T: Peter McCreery 150/1 ·market 1%	1%	1%	150/1	+19%
22	SILENT PROMISE J: R. P. Cleary · T: Adrian McGuinness Form: 9 150/1 ·market 1%	1%	1%	150/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+9%
23	TINSHONA J: Robbie Colgan · T: Ms Sheila Lavery Form: 0 150/1 ·market 1%	1%	1%	150/1	+2%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org