Plumpton 13:30: Value Analysis
Cappagh Browne Utilities Ltd Maiden Hurdle Race
Monday 2 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
This race is complete. Explore the latest card next.
See today's races →⚠ Vulnerable favourite: BAILLYS COMET is the market favourite (6/5) but the model rates it only 14% vs the market's 44%. It may be beatable.
Bold Step (13/8) was always in the right spot and quickened clear, winning comfortably, by 2¾ lengths. Bailly's Comet (5/4) filled second. Bailly's Comet, the 5/4 favourite, could manage only 2nd. Our model made him its top pick at 36%.
Second when he ran 167 days ago, has been mixing in better company and holds a strong record against this class; de Boinville and Henderson win 26% together. The absence and the rider's 8% fortnight are the caveats.
- ✓ Nico de Boinville and Nicky Henderson win 26% together
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
- ✕ First run for 167 days, so fitness is a question
- ✕ Nico de Boinville cold lately, 8% in the fortnight
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BOLD STEP
★ Top Rated
13/8
·market 38%
|
36% |
38% |
13/8
|
-7% | Winner |
| 2 |
LE COLD GREY
10/3
·market 23%
|
21% |
23% |
10/3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-10% | 3rd |
| 3 |
BAILLYS COMET
6/5
·market 44%
|
14% |
44% |
6/5
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-69% | 2nd |
| 4 |
CHASE THE STATUS
150/1
·market 1%
|
9% |
1% |
150/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+1250%market disagrees | 7th |
| 5 |
VICOMTE LE BRAVE
80/1
·market 1%
|
8% |
1% |
80/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+562%market disagrees | 6th |
| 6 |
SILVERHILL FREYA
25/1
·market 4%
|
6% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+66% | 4th |
| 7 |
MERCI VIEIL AMI
150/1
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
150/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+849%market disagrees | 5th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
Opened this from X? Google sign-in may not work in X's browser, so use your email below or open this page in Safari or Chrome.
Continue with Google
Step 1: your account. Step 2: secure Stripe checkout, where your 7 days free start.
See pricing ·
already a member? Sign in
Days 1 to 7 are free. You're charged £14.99 when the 7 days end, unless you cancel before then. We'll email you 2 to 3 days before you're charged, and you can cancel any time from your account page.
Had a free trial before? You'll be charged £14.99 today.
New customers: 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
Card required. Your subscription renews automatically each month. Cancel through your account before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.
Continue to Stripe's secure checkout to enter your payment details and activate access. EdgeDigger does not see or store your card number.
See the newest card the same way →
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org