Southwell 13:15: Value Analysis
Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap Steeple Chase
Monday 2 November 2026
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Solid claims across the board: the highest official rating here, a 3m winner who handles the good, second in each of his last two, and he eases in grade after running 32 days ago. Bailey and Nicholls strike at 28%.
- ✓ Has won over 3m before
- ✓ Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls sharp with handicappers, 28% recently
- ✓ Highest official rating in the race
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LAW OF SUPPLY
★ Top Rated
10/3
·market 23%
|
20% |
23% |
10/3
|
-12% | |
| 2 |
JUST IN A BIT
9/2
·market 18%
|
19% |
18% |
9/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+5% | |
| 3 |
MOONLIGHTINTHEPARK
15/2
·market 12%
|
13% |
12% |
15/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+12% | |
| 4 |
BILLY BOI BLUE
8/1
·market 11%
|
11% |
11% |
8/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+2% | |
| 5 |
GLENGOLLY
4/1
·market 20%
|
11% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-45% | |
| 6 |
TWIST OF FATECATCH
4/1
·market 20%
|
10% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-51% | |
| 7 |
FOUR DECADES
16/1
·market 6%
|
8% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+33% | |
| 8 |
HARRYS HOPE
10/1
·market 9%
|
7% |
9% |
10/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-19% |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org