Musselburgh 12:05: Value Analysis
Veronika Walker: Moments That Matter Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Ticks most boxes: won when he ran three days ago, goes well against this class and eases in grade from a stronger field, with Shane Gray at 16% in the fortnight; trip and class are the queries.
- ✓ Shane Gray riding well, 16% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
- ✕ Unproven at this level
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ALNOFOOR
★ Top Rated
11/8
·market 42%
|
34% |
42% |
11/8
|
-19% | Winner |
| 2 |
THUNDERSTORM KATIE
12/1
·market 8%
|
12% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+52% | 8th |
| 3 |
WEN MOON
3/1
·market 25%
|
10% |
25% |
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-59% | 11th |
| 4 |
ALBEGONE
10/1
·market 9%
|
8% |
9% |
10/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-9% | 2nd |
| 5 |
EDGEWATER DRIVE
25/1
·market 4%
|
8% |
4% |
25/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+103% | 10th |
| 6 |
FEAR AND FAST
11/1
·market 8%
|
7% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-21% | 5th |
| , |
HARB
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 7 |
GANESHA
22/1
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+18% | 7th |
| 8 |
JUSTMYLUCK
25/1
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
25/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+31% | 4th |
| 9 |
VALOR SPIRIT
16/1
·market 6%
|
5% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-16% | 6th |
| 10 |
PICKERSGILL
10/1
·market 9%
|
4% |
9% |
10/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-58% | 9th |
| 11 |
ROYAL DUKE
25/1
·market 4%
|
3% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-31% | 3rd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org