Nottingham 12:15: Value Analysis

EBF Desert Crown Novice Stakes

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Novice Stakes SFT 5f Class 4 4 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Chevere won (SP 4/11)

Our highest-rated★ Best value CHRISTMAS IS COMIN Our price 11/10 · Available 4/1 We make it 47% · the market says 20% · +135%

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: CHEVERE is the market favourite (3/10) but the model rates it only 34% vs the market's 75%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates CHRISTMAS IS COMIN top (47% chance)

Third when running 16 days ago, this one handles soft ground, holds a strong record against this class of rival and has won at the level; Josephine Gordon's 8% in the last two months is the one caveat.

✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
✓ Ideally fresh, 16 days since its last run
✕ Josephine Gordon cold lately, 8% in the last two months

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	CHRISTMAS IS COMIN ★ Top Rated J: Josephine Gordon · T: Sophie Leech Form: 5233 4/1 ·market 20%	47%	20%	4/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+135%	4th
2	CHEVERE J: Sean Levey · T: Owen Burrows Form: 872 3/10 ·market 75%	34%	75%	3/10 ▼ Edge decreasing	-54%	Winner
3	APRICOT J: Clifford Lee · T: T. J. Kent 9/1 ·market 10%	11%	10%	9/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+11%	2nd
4	DEBUTANTE J: George Downing · T: Ed Walker Form: 4 25/1 ·market 4%	8%	4%	25/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+96%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org