Nottingham 15:23: Value Analysis
Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Improving sort who has been racing in better company than this, Haggas striking at 18% in the last two months, and he won three in a row before a third and a fourth; the trip is the one query.
- ✓ Young improver with scope
- ✓ William Haggas's yard in form, 18% winners in the last two months
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
VENETIAN LION
★ Top Rated
11/8
·market 42%
|
23% |
42% |
11/8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-45% | Winner |
| 2 |
MERTOUN
14/1
·market 7%
|
14% |
7% |
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+108% | 12th |
| , |
TEX
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 3 |
THUNDER ROAR
9/2
·market 18%
|
10% |
18% |
9/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-45% | 11th |
| 4 |
AL JOLSON
10/1
·market 9%
|
10% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+9% | 4th |
| 5 |
COGITATE
16/1
·market 6%
|
8% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+28% | 5th |
| 6 |
TALIS EVOLVERE
9/1
·market 10%
|
6% |
10% |
9/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-39% | 13th |
| 7 |
DHAHABI
20/1
·market 5%
|
6% |
5% |
20/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+25% | 2nd |
| 8 |
HOT CASH
9/1
·market 10%
|
6% |
10% |
9/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-45% | 3rd |
| 9 |
CALLISTO DREAM
16/1
·market 6%
|
5% |
6% |
16/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-22% | 7th |
| 10 |
WYLD BILL
80/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
80/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+193% | 10th |
| 11 |
PHYSIQUE
40/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
40/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+42% | 8th |
| 12 |
ZOWAL
18/1
·market 5%
|
3% |
5% |
18/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-51% | 9th |
| 13 |
SUSIE SIOUX
25/1
·market 4%
|
2% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-47% | 6th |
| 14 |
COOLREE
66/1
·market 1%
|
2% |
1% |
66/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+18% | 14th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
Opened this from X? Google sign-in may not work in X's browser, so use your email below or open this page in Safari or Chrome.
Continue with Google
Step 1: your account. Step 2: secure Stripe checkout, where your 7 days free start.
See pricing ·
already a member? Sign in
Days 1 to 7 are free. You're charged £14.99 when the 7 days end, unless you cancel before then. We'll email you 2 to 3 days before you're charged, and you can cancel any time from your account page.
Had a free trial before? You'll be charged £14.99 today.
New customers: 7 days free, then £14.99/month.
Card required. Your subscription renews automatically each month. Cancel through your account before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.
Continue to Stripe's secure checkout to enter your payment details and activate access. EdgeDigger does not see or store your card number.
EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org