Musselburgh 15:17: Value Analysis
Nairns Oatcakes Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Solid claims across the board: a winner when she ran 16 days ago, a strong record against this class, a standout record at this level and form gained at a higher grade, though weight is the enemy.
- ✓ Ran well three runs back
- ✓ Has been racing at a higher level than this lately
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Carries plenty of weight today
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
DANDY MAGIC
★ Top Rated
10/1
·market 9%
|
17% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+90% | 6th |
| 2 |
THE RESDEV SCHOLAR
3/1
·market 25%
|
14% |
25% |
3/1
|
-46% | Winner |
| 3 |
GOLDEN MIND
4/1
·market 20%
|
12% |
20% |
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-39% | 2nd |
| 4 |
HOMESTRAIT
7/1
·market 12%
|
11% |
12% |
7/1
|
-14% | 9th |
| 5 |
COUNTY CARLOW
20/1
·market 5%
|
8% |
5% |
20/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+77% | 11th |
| 6 |
RHOSCOLYN
6/1
·market 14%
|
8% |
14% |
6/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-42% | 8th |
| 7 |
WITCH HUNTER
9/1
·market 10%
|
7% |
10% |
9/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-35% | 4th |
| 8 |
QUEST FOR FUN
11/2
·market 15%
|
6% |
15% |
11/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-61% | 5th |
| 9 |
CARGIN BHUI
22/1
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+14% | 7th |
| 10 |
MUDAMER
33/1
·market 3%
|
5% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+58% | 12th |
| 11 |
HUNKY DORY
50/1
·market 2%
|
4% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+107% | 3rd |
| 12 |
COUNT PALATINE
22/1
·market 4%
|
3% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-23% | 10th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org