Chester 13:37 — Value Analysis

Neaves & Co EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Friday 11 September 2026

Novice Stakes GTS 6.0f Class 5 11 runners
Model's most likely BEARLY BLUE 30% model chance · market 29%
No standout value here — the model and market broadly agree on the prices.
Why the model rates BEARLY BLUE top (30% chance)

Ticks most boxes here — ran well over his last three runs, comes from a yard striking at 12% with first-timers, and he returns after 71 days; a low official mark and Marsh's 8% in the fortnight are the quibbles.

  • ✓ Richard Hughes readies first-timers, 12% with debutants
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Finley Marsh cold lately, 8% in the fortnight
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets this breakdown - reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
BEARLY BLUE ★ Top Rated
J: Finley Marsh · T: Richard Hughes
3.5 ·market 29%
30%
29%
3.5
▲ Edge increasing
 +4%
2
DONNA BEAUTY
J: Connor Beasley · T: Charlie Johnston
3.0 ·market 33%
15%
33%
3.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -56%
3
HES READYTORUMBLE
J: Edward Greatrex · T: Jack Channon
9.0 ·market 11%
14%
11%
9.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +24%
4
WATER ANGEL
J: David Probert · T: Dylan Cunha
10.0 ·market 10%
11%
10%
10.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +9%
5
THE THINKING MAN
J: M. P. Sheehy · T: Adrian Keatley
3.8 ·market 27%
9%
27%
3.8
▼ Edge decreasing
 -67%
—
BREWSTER NR
J: Billy Garritty · T: Michael & David Easterby
51.0 ·market 2%
5%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +179% Withdrawn
6
CRACKING TOAST
J: Sean D Bowen · T: Gary Hanmer
51.0 ·market 2%
4%
2%
51.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +127%
7
OXBER FLYER
J: Liam Wright(3) · T: Charlie Clover
15.0 ·market 7%
4%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 -39%
8
NORTH COATES
J: Shane Gray · T: Michael & David Easterby
101.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
101.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +223%
9
PIVOTAL STAR
J: Shay Farmer(5) · T: Michael & David Easterby
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +111%
10
THE STONY BAKER
J: Sean Kirrane · T: Lisa Williamson
67.0 ·market 1%
3%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +78%

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value — the price may be bigger than the horse's true chance warrants. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → 📊 Our published model accuracy

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