Nottingham 13:29: Value Analysis

Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Wednesday 7 October 2026

Novice Stakes GD 6.0f Class 4 8 runners
Our highest-rated CASTLEROCK GIRL Our price 2/1 · Available 11/8 We make it 33% · the market says 42%
No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.
Why the model rates CASTLEROCK GIRL top (33% chance)

Clive Cox's yard at 16% in the fortnight, Rossa Ryan at 16% in the last two months, and a second when she ran 13 days ago give her the strongest claims here, though the trip is a question mark.

  • ✓ Preferred to Californian Angel, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Rossa Ryan riding well, 16% strike rate in the last two months
  • ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
  • ✕ Mostly unraced field — ranking is based on stable/jockey strength, not form. Confidence is genuinely low here
  • ✕ Yet to be tested against much

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Avg Price Value
1
CASTLEROCK GIRL ★ Top Rated
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Clive Cox
Form: 2
2.4 ·market 42%
33%
42%
2.4
▲ Edge increasing
 -22%
2
CALIFORNIAN ANGEL
J: David Probert · T: Hugo Palmer
Form: 362
4.0 ·market 25%
21%
25%
4.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 -14%
3
VENETIAN STORM
J: Kieran Shoemark · T: Ed Walker
3.5 ·market 29%
10%
29%
3.5
▼ Edge decreasing
 -64%
4
WATERSIDE BLUE
J: Kaiya Fraser · T: Harry Eustace
15.0 ·market 7%
9%
7%
15.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +39%
5
CARTOGRAPHY
J: Gina Mangan · T: Dr Richard Newland
34.0 ·market 3%
8%
3%
34.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +160%
6
HOSTA
J: Callum Shepherd · T: Hughie Morrison
67.0 ·market 1%
7%
1%
67.0
▲ Edge increasing
 +361%market disagrees
7
SPELL CATCHER
J: Pat Dobbs · T: Richard Hannon
8.5 ·market 12%
6%
12%
8.5
▲ Edge increasing
 -47%
8
CUBAN PROMISE
J: Molly Keegan-Price(7) · T: Tom Clover
Form: 57
151.0 ·market 1%
6%
1%
151.0
▼ Edge decreasing
 +738%market disagrees

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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