Chepstow 12:20: Value Analysis

Lords Taverners Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Steeple Chase

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GTS 23½f Class 4 5 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Gingerbred won (SP 10/11)

Our highest-rated GINGERBRED Our price 15/8 · Available 4/5 We make it 35% · the market says 55%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates GINGERBRED top (35% chance)

✓ Preferred to Annie Express, better suited by the trip
✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
✓ Well suited by today's ground
✕ Carries plenty of weight today
✕ William Featherstone and Joe Tizzard have a poor record together, 0% winners

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	GINGERBRED ★ Top Rated J: William Featherstone(6) · T: Joe Tizzard Form: P3461 · D 4/5 ·market 55%	35%	55%	4/5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-36%	Winner
2	ANNIE EXPRESS J: Toby McCain-Mitchell · T: Robbie Llewellyn Form: P4143 · D 7/2 ·market 22%	22%	22%	7/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-2%	,
3	ROE AND CO J: James Turner · T: Shaun Lycett Form: 1PP33 · CD 9/2 ·market 18%	17%	18%	9/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-5%	2nd
4	BALLYNAHEER J: Rian Corcoran · T: David Dennis Form: 15524 · D 9/1 ·market 10%	15%	10%	9/1	+46%	,
5	EMAILANDY J: Freddie Keighley · T: Martin Keighley Form: 8PPP4 14/1 ·market 7%	11%	7%	14/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+69%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org