Chepstow 12:51: Value Analysis

Free Tips On attheraces.com Maiden Hurdle Race

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Maiden GTS 19½f Class 4 14 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: New Rules won (SP 7/2)

Our highest-rated RED ACRES MAX Our price 7/2 · Available 4/5 We make it 22% · the market says 55%

★ Best value COOL CUSTOMER Our price 9/2 · Available 6/1 We make it 18% · the market says 14% · +27%

Why the model rates RED ACRES MAX top (22% chance)

Winning last time at this level or better makes for the strongest claims in the race, and Sheehan and Snowden strike at 30% together; 227 days off and patchy consistency are the questions.

✓ Ran well last time, finished 1st
✓ Gavin Sheehan and Jamie Snowden win 30% together
✕ First run for 227 days, so fitness is a question
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	RED ACRES MAX ★ Top Rated J: Gavin Sheehan · T: Jamie Snowden Form: 21 4/5 ·market 55%	22%	55%	4/5 ▼ Edge decreasing	-59%	2nd
2	COOL CUSTOMER J: Fern O'Brien(5) · T: Fergal O'Brien Form: 231 · C 6/1 ·market 14%	18%	14%	6/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+27%	3rd
3	PITCH AND TOSS J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton Form: 6 6/1 ·market 14%	11%	14%	6/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-26%	8th
,	SECRET JET AWAY NR J: Sean Bowen · T: Martin Keighley Form: 44 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
4	BARASCARIA TEN J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill Form: 64 125/1 ·market 1%	10%	1%	125/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+1124%market disagrees	13th
5	GETTOTHEBAR J: Tristan Durrell · T: Dan Skelton 100/1 ·market 1%	6%	1%	100/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+532%market disagrees	10th
6	NEW RULES J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Paul Nicholls 7/2 ·market 22%	6%	22%	7/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-75%	Winner
7	FOREST HILLS J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Carroll Gray Form: 0765U 250/1 ·market 0%	5%	0%	250/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+1139%market disagrees	12th
8	DOCKET MAN J: Ben Jones · T: Kayley Woollacott 16/1 ·market 6%	5%	6%	16/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-17%	5th
9	DOUBLE TEN J: Tom Bellamy · T: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 16/1 ·market 6%	4%	6%	16/1	-30%	4th
10	SAINT INVICTUS J: James Best · T: Syd Hosie Form: 25707 300/1 ·market 0%	4%	0%	300/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+1067%market disagrees	6th
11	IRISHCOFFEE J: Dylan Johnston · T: Sam Thomas 28/1 ·market 3%	3%	3%	28/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-2%	9th
12	RISEANDCALL J: David Noonan · T: Ben Clarke 80/1 ·market 1%	3%	1%	80/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+113%	11th
13	PURPLE FOUNTAIN J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams 250/1 ·market 0%	2%	0%	250/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+484%market disagrees	7th
14	PETIT GALET J: Sean Houlihan · T: Richard Mitford-Slade 300/1 ·market 0%	1%	0%	300/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+326%market disagrees	,

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

Opened this from X? Google sign-in may not work in X's browser, so use your email below or open this page in Safari or Chrome.

Continue with Google

or use your email

Step 1: your account. Step 2: secure Stripe checkout, where your 7 days free start.
See pricing · already a member? Sign in

Days 1 to 7 are free. You're charged £14.99 when the 7 days end, unless you cancel before then. We'll email you 2 to 3 days before you're charged, and you can cancel any time from your account page.

Had a free trial before? You'll be charged £14.99 today.

New customers: 7 days free, then £14.99/month. Card required. Your subscription renews automatically each month. Cancel through your account before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.
Continue to Stripe's secure checkout to enter your payment details and activate access. EdgeDigger does not see or store your card number.

See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org