Nottingham 12:45: Value Analysis

Ladies Day 8th May On Sale Now Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Other Handicap SFT 5f Class 5 10 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Campenaerts won (SP 5/1)

Our highest-rated★ Best value MAHARAJAS EXPRESS Our price 3/1 · Available 7/2 We make it 26% · the market says 22% · +15%

Why the model rates MAHARAJAS EXPRESS top (26% chance)

✓ Preferred to Sonic Si, better suited by the trip and better on the ground
✓ Has won over 5f before
✓ Race-fit, having run 6 days ago
✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
✕ Carries plenty of weight today

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	MAHARAJAS EXPRESS ★ Top Rated J: Harry Davies · T: Ian Williams Form: 22182 · D 7/2 ·market 22%	26%	22%	7/2	+15%	3rd
2	SONIC SI J: Rossa Ryan · T: Tony Carroll Form: 43111 · CD 12/1 ·market 8%	16%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+111%	10th
3	SERGEANT MAYER J: Alex Jary(3) · T: Nigel Tinkler Form: 11131 · CD 18/1 ·market 5%	14%	5%	18/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+174%	4th
4	CAMPENAERTS J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman Form: 78242 · D 11/2 ·market 15%	10%	15%	11/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-36%	Winner
5	SMART VISION J: George Wood · T: Jessica Macey Form: 44872 · D 4/1 ·market 20%	9%	20%	4/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-57%	9th
6	VINCE LAMOUR J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby Form: 86841 · CD 8/1 ·market 11%	6%	11%	8/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-46%	2nd
7	FANTASY MASTER J: David Egan · T: Robert Cowell Form: 23287 · CD 5/1 ·market 17%	6%	17%	5/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-67%	7th
8	BEAR ROCK J: Faye McManoman · T: Michael Mullineaux Form: 72104 80/1 ·market 1%	5%	1%	80/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+333%market disagrees	6th
9	EMPEROR CARADOC J: David Nolan · T: Paul Midgley Form: 00816 · CD 11/1 ·market 8%	5%	8%	11/1	-37%	8th
10	RAMBUSO CREEK J: Ethan Tindall(5) · T: Michael Herrington Form: 54174 · CD 8/1 ·market 11%	4%	11%	8/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-68%	5th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org