Chepstow 13:25: Value Analysis

LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I)

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Maiden GTS 16f Class 4 13 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: St James's Finest won (SP 5/2)

Our highest-rated ST JAMESS FINEST Our price 3/1 · Available 5/2 We make it 25% · the market says 29%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

⚠ Vulnerable favourite: ORDER ON TIME is the market favourite (1/2) but the model rates it only 21% vs the market's 67%. It may be beatable.

Why the model rates ST JAMESS FINEST top (25% chance)

Dan Skelton's yard is 21% in the last two months and Harry Skelton 29% in the fortnight, and this one's last three runs read well; solid claims across the board despite 290 days off and a rise in class.

✓ Dan Skelton's yard in form, 21% winners in the last two months
✓ Harry Skelton riding well, 29% strike rate in the fortnight
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✕ Yet to be tested against much
✕ Raised in class today

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	ST JAMESS FINEST ★ Top Rated J: Harry Skelton · T: Dan Skelton Form: 41 · D 5/2 ·market 29%	25%	29%	5/2 ▲ Edge increasing	-14%	Winner
2	ORDER ON TIME J: Sam Twiston-Davies · T: Paul Nicholls Form: 1 · CD 1/2 ·market 67%	21%	67%	1/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-69%	2nd
3	PLAN DE STAN J: Caoilin Quinn · T: Tom Symonds Form: 226 9/1 ·market 10%	14%	10%	9/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+36%	,
4	AYE OVER TEE J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill Form: 0 100/1 ·market 1%	9%	1%	100/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+794%market disagrees	4th
5	TIMMIE TWO J: Bryan Carver · T: I Chanin Form: 4 100/1 ·market 1%	7%	1%	100/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+566%market disagrees	,
6	DANCE IFYOUCAN J: Ben Jones · T: Kayley Woollacott 28/1 ·market 3%	5%	3%	28/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+34%	,
7	STAGGE HYLL J: Daniel Sansom(3) · T: Seamus Mullins Form: 5 25/1 ·market 4%	4%	4%	25/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+14%	3rd
8	HORETHORNE J: Freddie Gingell · T: Joe Tizzard Form: 307 150/1 ·market 1%	4%	1%	150/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+490%market disagrees	8th
9	LADY BAM J: Jack Andrews · T: Tom Ellis Form: 380 250/1 ·market 0%	3%	0%	250/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+683%market disagrees	5th
10	JEU MAGIC J: Adam Wedge · T: Mrs C. Williams 80/1 ·market 1%	3%	1%	80/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+144%	7th
11	JUST JAFFA J: Harry Kimber · T: Kathy Turner 300/1 ·market 0%	3%	0%	300/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+691%market disagrees	,
12	MOONRISE MONARCH J: Callum Pritchard · T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 16/1 ·market 6%	2%	6%	16/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-63%	6th
13	THE TWO FOUR J: Jack Tudor · T: Christian Williams 66/1 ·market 1%	2%	1%	66/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+29%	,

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org