Wexford 13:33: Value Analysis
Botanica International Rated Novice Hurdle
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: THE BESTY WOMAN is the market favourite (13/8) but the model rates it only 11% vs the market's 38%. It may be beatable.
Winner 26 days ago and ideally fresh for it, with Jack Kennedy 24% in the last two months and a strong record against this type; the trip and a step up in company are the only real queries.
- ✓ Jack Kennedy riding well, 24% strike rate in the last two months
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 26 days since its last run
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
EURO AGENT
★ Top Rated
7/2
·market 22%
|
25% |
22% |
7/2
|
+14% | 3rd |
| 2 |
HEY NOW
11/2
·market 15%
|
17% |
15% |
11/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+8% | 4th |
| 3 |
LE ROI DU LIVET
5/1
·market 17%
|
15% |
17% |
5/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-9% | 5th |
| 4 |
KENTUCKY BEACH
11/1
·market 8%
|
12% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+43% | 6th |
| 5 |
MYSTIC ROSE
10/1
·market 9%
|
12% |
9% |
10/1
|
+27% | 2nd |
| 6 |
THE BESTY WOMAN
13/8
·market 38%
|
11% |
38% |
13/8
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-71% | , |
| , |
ROYAL BELIEF
NR
—
·market —
|
— |
— |
—
|
— | Withdrawn |
| 7 |
OLD SAXONY
22/1
·market 4%
|
5% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+11% | 7th |
| 8 |
AN PEANN DEARG
18/1
·market 5%
|
4% |
5% |
18/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-33% | Winner |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org