Nottingham 13:20: Value Analysis

Racedays For £9 At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Other Handicap SFT 16f Class 4 13 runners
What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Pole Star won (SP 6/1)
Our highest-rated★ Best value SHAFFRON Our price 9/2 · Available 5/1 We make it 18% · the market says 17% · +9%
Why the model rates SHAFFRON top (18% chance)

Shaffron ticks plenty of boxes: a winner 40 days ago with a second and a third before that, proven at this class and on the going, though she steps into stronger company and consistency has been patchy.

  • ✓ Preferred to Hello Friend, a proven winner at this class
  • ✓ Ran well over its last three runs
  • ✕ Consistency has been a worry
  • ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

# Horse Model
Chance		 Market
Implies		 Typical odds Value
1
SHAFFRON ★ Top Rated
J: Sean Levey · T: David Menuisier
Form: 99321
5/1 ·market 17%
18%
17%
5/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +9% 13th
2
HELLO FRIEND
J: Clifford Lee · T: K. R. Burke
Form: 24252
5/1 ·market 17%
16%
17%
5/1
▲ Edge increasing
 -2% 2nd
3
PERSONAL BEST
J: Rob Hornby · T: Jonathan Portman
Form: 21334
4/1 ·market 20%
14%
20%
4/1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -29% 3rd
4
LOKI
J: Charlie Maggs(3) · T: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero
Form: 102
7/1 ·market 12%
10%
12%
7/1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -24% 4th
5
POLE STAR
J: Toby Moore(7) · T: Charlie Johnston
Form: 53318 · D
6/1 ·market 14%
8%
14%
6/1
▲ Edge increasing
 -47% Winner
6
AUTUMNS BREEZE
J: David Egan · T: Jamie Moore & Josh Moore
Form: 399P3 · D
13/2 ·market 13%
6%
13%
13/2
▼ Edge decreasing
 -52% 8th
7
CASCADE HALL
J: Rossa Ryan · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 72127 · D
10/1 ·market 9%
6%
9%
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
 -33% 10th
8
RUSSIAN RUMOUR
J: Olivia Tubb(5) · T: Jonathan Portman
Form: 43337 · CD
25/1 ·market 4%
5%
4%
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +21% 5th
9
TROJAN SUN
J: Cieren Fallon · T: Jim Goldie
Form: 36320 · CD
8/1 ·market 11%
4%
11%
8/1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -63% 6th
10
MA BELLE ARTISTE
J: P. J. McDonald · T: Robert Bevis
Form: 7
100/1 ·market 1%
4%
1%
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +265% 12th
11
CALL MY BLUFF
J: John Egan · T: Dominic Ffrench Davis
Form: 05088 · CD
40/1 ·market 2%
3%
2%
40/1
▼ Edge decreasing
 +35% 7th
12
WILTSHIRE WONDER
J: William Cox · T: Bernard Llewellyn
Form: 50568 · D
100/1 ·market 1%
3%
1%
100/1
▲ Edge increasing
 +211% 11th
13
ZIMMERMAN
J: Jake Dickson(5) · T: Tim Easterby
Form: 11439 · D
14/1 ·market 7%
3%
7%
14/1
▼ Edge decreasing
 -59% 9th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org