Chepstow 13:58: Value Analysis
LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div II)
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
⚠ Vulnerable favourite: A SIGHT TO SEA is the market favourite (1/2) but the model rates it only 5% vs the market's 67%. It may be beatable.
Shaped better than the bare result when it ran 13 days ago and our figures make it the pick, an unexposed type open to any amount of improvement, though Liam Harrison is 7% in the fortnight.
- ✓ Ran better than the result suggests last time
- ✕ Liam Harrison cold lately, 7% in the fortnight
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
POTTER
★ Top Rated
25/1
·market 4%
|
17% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+341%market disagrees | 3rd |
| 2 |
BEST TRUMP
10/1
·market 9%
|
17% |
9% |
10/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
+83% | 4th |
| 3 |
CHAMP KABAI
10/1
·market 9%
|
15% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+67% | 10th |
| 4 |
THE LIGHTMAKER
5/1
·market 17%
|
14% |
17% |
5/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-15% | 2nd |
| 5 |
ONE COOL KID
28/1
·market 3%
|
9% |
3% |
28/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+173% | 5th |
| 6 |
TOPSHAM TIDE
25/1
·market 4%
|
6% |
4% |
25/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+68% | 7th |
| 7 |
A SIGHT TO SEA
1/2
·market 67%
|
5% |
67% |
1/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-93% | Winner |
| 8 |
JERRY THE DREAMER
16/1
·market 6%
|
4% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-32% | 8th |
| 9 |
NAVARAU
80/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
80/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+217% | 6th |
| 10 |
SQUIB
150/1
·market 1%
|
4% |
1% |
150/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+434%market disagrees | , |
| 11 |
THE SKY AT NIGHT
40/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
40/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+5% | 11th |
| 12 |
VALE MAGIC
150/1
·market 1%
|
2% |
1% |
150/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+268% | 9th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org