Nottingham 13:50: Value Analysis
Experience Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Novice Stakes
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Ticks most boxes: better on the ground than Indhaar, a strong record against this grade, and a drop from company rated 146 into a 72-rated field. Trip and Tom Queally's 9% in the last two months are the queries.
- ✓ Preferred to Indhaar, better on the ground
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
- ✕ Tom Queally cold lately, 9% in the last two months
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SALVER
★ Top Rated
2/1
·market 33%
|
26% |
33% |
2/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-23% | 8th |
| 2 |
INDHAAR
5/2
·market 29%
|
17% |
29% |
5/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-42% | Winner |
| 3 |
TEMPLE
10/3
·market 23%
|
12% |
23% |
10/3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-47% | 7th |
| 4 |
MARQUETRY
14/1
·market 7%
|
12% |
7% |
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+84% | 6th |
| 5 |
THE RESDEV TYKE
16/1
·market 6%
|
11% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+84% | 2nd |
| 6 |
SECRET SQUIRREL
9/2
·market 18%
|
6% |
18% |
9/2
|
-68% | 3rd |
| 7 |
CORALLIENCE
150/1
·market 1%
|
6% |
1% |
150/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+754%market disagrees | 4th |
| 8 |
ACE ARTIST
250/1
·market 0%
|
4% |
0% |
250/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+907%market disagrees | 10th |
| 9 |
TRAIN IN VAIN
200/1
·market 0%
|
4% |
0% |
200/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+658%market disagrees | 9th |
| 10 |
VELARDO
125/1
·market 1%
|
3% |
1% |
125/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+289% | 5th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org