Wexford 14:05: Value Analysis

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Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Maiden 16½f Class 0 12 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Walking Saint won (SP 10/3)

Our highest-rated★ Best value CAPRISON Our price 7/2 · Available 4/1 We make it 22% · the market says 20% · +10%

Why the model rates CAPRISON top (22% chance)

Caprison ticks most boxes: a solid record against this grade, three encouraging runs behind him and 21 days to freshen up, with only the trip and limited exposure left to answer.

✓ Ideally fresh, 21 days since its last run
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✓ Ran well over its last three runs
✕ Yet to be tested against much
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	CAPRISON ★ Top Rated J: Keith Donoghue · T: Gavin Cromwell Form: 95 4/1 ·market 20%	22%	20%	4/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+10%	5th
2	MCALLISTER J: Sean O'Keeffe · T: Paul Nolan Form: 60 2/1 ·market 33%	14%	33%	2/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-58%	9th
3	WALKING SAINT J: Eoin Staples(5) · T: Paul Nolan Form: 8556 10/3 ·market 23%	14%	23%	10/3 ▲ Edge increasing	-39%	Winner
4	THE FARMERS BAR J: Jordan Gainford · T: Cian Collins Form: 78 4/1 ·market 20%	12%	20%	4/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-40%	4th
5	WHISPERED VERDICT J: Conor Stone-Walsh · T: Gavin Cromwell Form: 09 14/1 ·market 7%	10%	7%	14/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+46%	7th
6	LUCKY VALLEY J: Alan O'Sullivan(5) · T: Michael Barry Form: 55 28/1 ·market 3%	8%	3%	28/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+122%	3rd
7	GALWAY STAR J: G B Noonan · T: Eoin Christopher McCarthy Form: 07 22/1 ·market 4%	6%	4%	22/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+40%	13th
,	WESTERN NOTE NR J: Josh Williamson(3) · T: Gordon Elliott — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
,	HEE HILES NR J: Shane O'Callaghan(3) · T: T M Walsh Form: 706 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
8	POETIC PARABLE J: Shane Markey(7) · T: Ross O'Sullivan Form: 70 40/1 ·market 2%	4%	2%	40/1	+79%	11th
9	JOHN GUN J: Paddy Cody(7) · T: Kieran Purcell Form: 95 50/1 ·market 2%	4%	2%	50/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+88%	6th
10	PATS PRODIGIES J: Mr R Sugrue(7) · T: P J Rothwell Form: 00 125/1 ·market 1%	3%	1%	125/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+232%	12th
11	BURNING LIKE FIRE J: Philip Donovan · T: Denis Gerard Hogan Form: 00 125/1 ·market 1%	2%	1%	125/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+133%	2nd
12	QUEEN OF THE GALES J: Mr J P Collins(7) · T: Colin Motherway Form: 90 33/1 ·market 3%	2%	3%	33/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-43%	8th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org