Chepstow 14:30: Value Analysis

Lysaght Cup Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Novice Hcap Chase GTS 16f Class 3 4 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Tour Ovalie won (SP 10/3)

Our highest-rated RULA BULA Our price 7/4 · Available 7/4 We make it 36% · the market says 36%

★ Best value TOUR OVALIE Our price 9/4 · Available 3/1 We make it 30% · the market says 24% · +22%

Why the model rates RULA BULA top (36% chance)

Runner-up when she ran 19 days ago and well treated on that evidence, she has O'Neill Jr at 19% in the last two months; she meets stronger company than the 114-rated field, though, and the trip is unproven.

✓ Jonjo O'Neill Jr. riding well, 19% strike rate in the last two months
✓ Ideally fresh, 19 days since its last run
✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
✕ Trip is a question mark
✕ Consistency has been a worry

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
,	DESERTMORE NEWS NR J: Jack Andrews · T: Tom Ellis Form: 10103 · D — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
1	RULA BULA ★ Top Rated J: Jonjo O'Neill Jr. · T: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill Form: 15752 · D 7/4 ·market 36%	36%	36%	7/4 ▼ Edge decreasing	+0%	,
2	TOUR OVALIE J: Adam Wedge · T: Mrs C. Williams Form: 34083 · D 3/1 ·market 24%	30%	24%	3/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+22%	Winner
3	INSIDE MAN J: Ciaran Gethings · T: Mrs Jane Williams Form: 17944 · CD 7/4 ·market 36%	20%	36%	7/4 ▼ Edge decreasing	-44%	2nd
4	BLACK HAWK EAGLE J: Conor O'Farrell · T: Kerry Lee Form: 631F4 · CD 7/1 ·market 12%	13%	12%	7/1	+7%	3rd

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org