Chepstow 15:05: Value Analysis

DragonBet Handicap Steeple Chase

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Handicap Chase GTS 19½f Class 4 8 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Sage Green won (SP 12/1)

Our highest-rated★ Best value MR MCWHINNY Our price 7/2 · Available 4/1 We make it 22% · the market says 21% · +6%

Why the model rates MR MCWHINNY top (22% chance)

Preferred to Great Dance, better proven at this class and better on the ground, he ran 32 days ago and finished second, with four wins from his last six. Rated below the best, but ticks most boxes.

✓ Preferred to Great Dance, better proven at this class and better on the ground
✓ Well suited by today's ground
✓ Ran well three runs back
✕ Rated below the best in this race
✕ Unproven at this level

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	MR MCWHINNY ★ Top Rated J: Jack Andrews · T: Tom Ellis Form: 41112 · D 4/1 ·market 21%	22%	21%	4/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+6%	,
2	GREAT DANCE J: Lorcan Williams · T: Chester Williams Form: 93425 7/2 ·market 22%	19%	22%	7/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-13%	3rd
3	MY FRIEND SEAN J: Stan Sheppard · T: Tom Lacey Form: 36525 · C 7/1 ·market 12%	12%	12%	7/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-2%	4th
4	RANGATIRA JACK J: Sean Houlihan · T: Linda Blackford Form: 67421 · D 6/1 ·market 14%	11%	14%	6/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-21%	,
5	TWO TO TANGO J: Charlie Todd · T: Emma Lavelle Form: 32432 · D 13/2 ·market 13%	11%	13%	13/2	-19%	2nd
,	CANT RESIST IT NR J: Jack Hogan · T: Fergal O'Brien Form: 544 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
6	KARTON PLEIN J: Sean Bowen · T: Olly Murphy Form: 2P3P8 4/1 ·market 20%	10%	20%	4/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-50%	,
7	SAGE GREEN J: James Best · T: Syd Hosie Form: 24F33 12/1 ·market 8%	8%	8%	12/1	+5%	Winner
,	BAHTIYAR NR J: Miss Clara Brewitt(7) · T: Max Young Form: 34523 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
8	LEMPIRE VERT J: Callum Pritchard · T: Sheila Lewis Form: P8214 · D 18/1 ·market 5%	6%	5%	18/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+20%	,
,	DILIGENT MILITIA NR J: Rex Dingle · T: Tim Vaughan Form: 5P44P — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org