Kempton 15:00: Value Analysis

Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Other Handicap STSL 8f Class 6 13 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Snooker McCrew won (SP 3/1)

Our highest-rated★ Best value PALLISER Our price 10/3 · Available 9/2 We make it 23% · the market says 18% · +25%

Why the model rates PALLISER top (23% chance)

Unexposed type open to any amount of improvement, and he caught the eye two runs back at a similar level to this. Consistency and the trip are the two things to prove, but the claims are solid.

✓ Young improver with scope
✓ Ran well two runs back
✕ Consistency has been a worry
✕ Trip is a question mark

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	PALLISER ★ Top Rated J: Hollie Doyle · T: Archie Watson Form: 64022 9/2 ·market 18%	23%	18%	9/2 ▲ Edge increasing	+25%	2nd
2	SNOOKER MCCREW J: Alfie Redman(7) · T: Max Comley Form: 66111 · CD 3/1 ·market 25%	15%	25%	3/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-39%	Winner
3	BLUE CELESTIAL J: Lewis Edmunds · T: James Tate Form: 62246 15/2 ·market 12%	9%	12%	15/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-25%	5th
4	BOBACIOUS J: Ashley Lewis(3) · T: Mark Hoad Form: 65176 40/1 ·market 2%	8%	2%	40/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+230%	9th
5	DANDY G BOY J: Edward Greatrex · T: Warren Greatrex Form: 66278 · C 15/2 ·market 12%	7%	12%	15/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-41%	11th
6	BEACHBOROUGH GIRL J: Dylan Hogan · T: Julia & Shelley Birkett Form: 32715 25/1 ·market 4%	6%	4%	25/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+65%	8th
7	PORT ERIN J: David Probert · T: Tony Carroll Form: 85748 · CD 14/1 ·market 7%	6%	7%	14/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-6%	6th
8	ROYAL JET J: Molly Gunn(5) · T: Tony Carroll Form: 26179 · D 80/1 ·market 1%	5%	1%	80/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+340%market disagrees	12th
9	WIELD J: Luke Morris · T: Joseph Parr Form: 72900 25/1 ·market 4%	5%	4%	25/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+31%	10th
,	SENOR CAMPANARO NR J: Billy Loughnane · T: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson Form: 10829 — ·market —	—	—	—	—	Withdrawn
10	VALENTINE BOY J: Jack Dace(5) · T: Luke Dace Form: 48465 · CD 4/1 ·market 20%	5%	20%	4/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	-75%	3rd
11	HINT OF THE JUNGLE J: Kieran O'Neill · T: Mike Murphy Form: 22108 40/1 ·market 2%	5%	2%	40/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+91%	7th
12	SOUTH KENSINGTON J: Charles Bishop · T: Adam Kirby Form: 72015 · D 12/1 ·market 8%	3%	8%	12/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-55%	4th
13	SOY LOCO J: Paddy Bradley · T: Simon Dow Form: 0 50/1 ·market 2%	2%	2%	50/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+3%	13th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

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See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org