Nottingham 14:53: Value Analysis
Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Second when she ran 28 days ago, she has solid claims across the board, a strong record against this class and the Sexton/Bethell pairing striking at 20%, with the trip the main query.
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ryan Sexton and Edward Bethell win 20% together
- ✓ Ran well last time, finished 2nd
- ✕ Unproven at this level
- ✕ Trip is a question mark
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
BORJINA
★ Top Rated
7/2
·market 22%
|
27% |
22% |
7/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+19% | 4th |
| 2 |
DEEDAYDIVA
4/1
·market 20%
|
20% |
20% |
4/1
|
+0% | 9th |
| 3 |
GHOST STORY
9/2
·market 18%
|
11% |
18% |
9/2
|
-39% | Winner |
| 4 |
ROYAL SAXO
12/1
·market 8%
|
11% |
8% |
12/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+44% | 5th |
| 5 |
SALVEZZA
16/1
·market 6%
|
8% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+35% | 7th |
| 6 |
BEACH POINT
7/1
·market 12%
|
7% |
12% |
7/1
|
-45% | 6th |
| 7 |
LUCKY LUNA
7/1
·market 12%
|
7% |
12% |
7/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-46% | 8th |
| 8 |
GLENNA
13/2
·market 13%
|
5% |
13% |
13/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-63% | 2nd |
| 9 |
BUST A MOVE
18/1
·market 5%
|
5% |
5% |
18/1
|
-9% | 3rd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org