Musselburgh 13:10: Value Analysis

Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below

Other Handicap GTS 12½f Class 6 11 runners

What the abbreviations mean

Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.

We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)

Next: 15:55 Nottingham, every runner rated. Start your 7-day free trial, £0 today.

Also still to run: 16:00 Kempton, 16:05 Dundalk

Result: Flying Moonlight won (SP 9/4)

Our highest-rated FLYING MOONLIGHT Our price 4/1 · Available 5/2 We make it 19% · the market says 29%

No standout value here. No runner is rated above its current price.

Why the model rates FLYING MOONLIGHT top (19% chance)

Third when he ran 27 days ago, second three starts back and a strong record against this class, he ticks most boxes and is 10lb better in at the weights than Kartini, with the trip the main query.

✓ Preferred to Kartini, 10lb better in at the weights and a proven winner at this class
✓ Ran well last time, finished 3rd
✓ Strong record against this class of rival
✕ Trip is a question mark
✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race

Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.

#	Horse	Model Chance	Market Implies	Typical odds	Value
1	FLYING MOONLIGHT ★ Top Rated J: Greg Fairley · T: Sandy Thomson Form: 33243 5/2 ·market 29%	19%	29%	5/2	-35%	Winner
2	KARTINI J: Paul Mulrennan · T: Simon Whitaker Form: 65471 3/1 ·market 25%	19%	25%	3/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-24%	2nd
3	GREY FABLE J: Jason Hart · T: Karl Thornton Form: 54265 · D 7/2 ·market 22%	10%	22%	7/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-53%	3rd
4	COUGAR J: Joanna Mason · T: Nick Kent Form: 57908 · CD 28/1 ·market 3%	9%	3%	28/1 ▼ Edge decreasing	+167%	6th
5	PAROLE OFFICER J: William Pyle · T: Ewan Whillans Form: 06505 22/1 ·market 4%	8%	4%	22/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+83%	7th
6	KINROSS CLARET J: Oisin Orr · T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore Form: 70 18/1 ·market 5%	8%	5%	18/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+47%	9th
7	BATTOSAI J: Sam James · T: Jack Morland Form: 53500 18/1 ·market 5%	7%	5%	18/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+39%	8th
8	NATURALIA J: Andrew Mullen · T: Donald Whillans Form: 18443 · D 9/2 ·market 18%	7%	18%	9/2 ▼ Edge decreasing	-61%	4th
9	MISS VERONIKA J: Dale Swift · T: Brian Ellison Form: 54660 33/1 ·market 3%	6%	3%	33/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+107%	10th
10	DANDYS ANGEL J: Tom Kiely-Marshall(3) · T: John Wainwright Form: 62625 · D 20/1 ·market 5%	3%	5%	20/1 ▲ Edge increasing	-35%	5th
11	GALISTRA J: Rhys Elliott(5) · T: Alan Brown Form: 07909 125/1 ·market 1%	3%	1%	125/1 ▲ Edge increasing	+284%	11th

How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →

That is one of 47 races today. 16 races are still to run today, all rated. A trial opens every one, plus every UK and Irish race from tomorrow on. Seven days free, nothing charged today. Founder price £14.99 a month, locked for life. 50 founder places, 28 taken.

Opened this from X? Google sign-in may not work in X's browser, so use your email below or open this page in Safari or Chrome.

Continue with Google

or use your email

Step 1: your account. Step 2: secure Stripe checkout, where your 7 days free start.
See pricing · already a member? Sign in

Days 1 to 7 are free. You're charged £14.99 when the 7 days end, unless you cancel before then. We'll email you 2 to 3 days before you're charged, and you can cancel any time from your account page.

Had a free trial before? You'll be charged £14.99 today.

New customers: 7 days free, then £14.99/month. Card required. Your subscription renews automatically each month. Cancel through your account before the trial ends to avoid the first charge.
Continue to Stripe's secure checkout to enter your payment details and activate access. EdgeDigger does not see or store your card number.

See all of today's value flags → Our published model accuracy

EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org