Musselburgh 13:42: Value Analysis
Burton Roofing Merchants Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Gemini Man ticks most boxes at this level: third when he ran 33 days ago, second two starts back, and trip and going both proven. The yard and Andrew Mullen each at 6% in the fortnight are the caveats.
- ✓ Preferred to Alpine Sierra, a proven winner at this class
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 33 days since its last run
- ✕ Iain Jardine's yard quiet lately, 6% in the fortnight
- ✕ Andrew Mullen cold lately, 6% in the fortnight
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GEMINI MAN
★ Top Rated
10/3
·market 23%
|
21% |
23% |
10/3
▲ Edge increasing
|
-9% | 2nd |
| 2 |
ALPINE SIERRA
3/1
·market 25%
|
16% |
25% |
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-37% | 5th |
| 3 |
WEST SLEEKBURN LAD
10/1
·market 9%
|
12% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+35% | 9th |
| 4 |
OFF SPIN
5/1
·market 17%
|
10% |
17% |
5/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-37% | Winner |
| 5 |
IDYLLIC
14/1
·market 7%
|
9% |
7% |
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+34% | 8th |
| 6 |
WATCHA SNOOP
33/1
·market 3%
|
8% |
3% |
33/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+179% | 4th |
| 7 |
EAGLES DREAM
8/1
·market 11%
|
7% |
11% |
8/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-37% | 6th |
| 8 |
GEMICAL
16/1
·market 6%
|
6% |
6% |
16/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+9% | 7th |
| 9 |
HICKTON
14/1
·market 7%
|
6% |
7% |
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-9% | 10th |
| 10 |
FALAISE BLANC
7/1
·market 12%
|
4% |
12% |
7/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-70% | 3rd |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org