Musselburgh 14:15: Value Analysis
Joe Fanning Fond Farewell Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Preferred to Ned Broy on this ground, nicely in at the weights and dropping from a 65-rated field into 56-rated company, with Jason Hart at 14% in the fortnight. Only the flat eighth 7 days ago jars.
- ✓ Preferred to Ned Broy, better on the ground
- ✓ Jason Hart riding well, 14% strike rate in the fortnight
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Stepping up beyond the level it has shown
- ✕ Little to like about its run last time
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
RICH BELIEF
★ Top Rated
10/3
·market 23%
|
22% |
23% |
10/3
|
-6% | Winner |
| 2 |
NED BROY
13/2
·market 13%
|
18% |
13% |
13/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+35% | 8th |
| 3 |
BOLLIN NEIL
14/1
·market 7%
|
10% |
7% |
14/1
|
+45% | 6th |
| 4 |
STORM ON JURA
10/3
·market 23%
|
9% |
23% |
10/3
|
-62% | 5th |
| 5 |
QUEEN ROSLYN
9/2
·market 18%
|
9% |
18% |
9/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-53% | 3rd |
| 6 |
QUERCUS ROBUR
10/1
·market 9%
|
7% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-19% | 4th |
| 7 |
NEDDIES BOY
20/1
·market 5%
|
7% |
5% |
20/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+53% | 7th |
| 8 |
GALAHAD THREEPWOOD
9/1
·market 10%
|
6% |
10% |
9/1
|
-39% | 2nd |
| 9 |
CHARLIE DARLING
11/1
·market 8%
|
6% |
8% |
11/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-30% | 10th |
| 10 |
SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH
50/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+78% | 9th |
| 11 |
NOTHINGBUTADREAM
25/1
·market 4%
|
3% |
4% |
25/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-13% | 11th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org