Nottingham 14:20: Value Analysis
Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Preferred to Tele Red on 3lb better terms, he ran well two runs back and has won at this class before, with trip and going experience from a run 13 days ago; consistency is the slight worry.
- ✓ Preferred to Tele Red, 3lb better in at the weights
- ✓ Ran well two runs back
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Consistency has been a worry
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
ARBAAWY
★ Top Rated
11/4
·market 27%
|
27% |
27% |
11/4
▲ Edge increasing
|
-1% | 5th |
| 2 |
TELE RED
9/2
·market 18%
|
14% |
18% |
9/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
-22% | 3rd |
| 3 |
NIGHT PATROL
5/1
·market 17%
|
13% |
17% |
5/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-23% | 8th |
| 4 |
LOVE YOU BACK
6/1
·market 14%
|
10% |
14% |
6/1
|
-32% | 9th |
| 5 |
NOW MAYBE
13/2
·market 13%
|
9% |
13% |
13/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-35% | 6th |
| 6 |
ROYAL POETRY
10/1
·market 9%
|
9% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-1% | Winner |
| 7 |
SELECTION
10/1
·market 9%
|
8% |
9% |
10/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
-14% | 4th |
| 8 |
LADY HORNBLOWER
18/1
·market 5%
|
7% |
5% |
18/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+38% | 2nd |
| 9 |
NAPLES
33/1
·market 3%
|
5% |
3% |
33/1
|
+54% | 7th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org