Musselburgh 14:45: Value Analysis
Hibernian FC Emerald Club Handicap Stakes
Wednesday 4 November 2026 · result below
What the abbreviations mean
Going: GD good · GTS good to soft · GTY good to yielding · YLD yielding · SFT soft · HVY heavy · STD standard (all-weather). Distance is in furlongs: 8f = 1 mile, 16f = 2 miles, 20f = 2½ miles. Form: recent finishing positions, latest on the right; 0 = 10th or worse, P = pulled up, F = fell, U = unseated rider. C = has won at this course, D = has won over this distance, CD = both. Odds are shown as fractions: 2/1 means £2 profit for every £1 staked.
We give every horse a % chance of winning and turn it into a fair price. If the bookies offer bigger odds than our fair price, the horse is better value than the market thinks. How to read this page (30 seconds)
Preferred to Tolstoy, he ticks most boxes: a strong record against this class, a third on his latest start and fresh after 23 days, with trip and going experience, though he is yet to be tested against much.
- ✓ Preferred to Tolstoy, a proven winner at this class
- ✓ Ideally fresh, 23 days since its last run
- ✓ Strong record against this class of rival
- ✕ Yet to be tested against much
- ✕ Official mark among the lowest in the race
Every runner gets the same breakdown of reasons for and against, straight from the model's workings.
| # | Horse | Model Chance |
Market Implies |
Typical odds | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
MOTAWAARED
★ Top Rated
7/2
·market 22%
|
16% |
22% |
7/2
|
-26% | 5th |
| 2 |
TOLSTOY
7/2
·market 22%
|
15% |
22% |
7/2
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-32% | 3rd |
| 3 |
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND
3/1
·market 25%
|
14% |
25% |
3/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-44% | 2nd |
| 4 |
CAVALLO PAZZO
15/2
·market 12%
|
13% |
12% |
15/2
▲ Edge increasing
|
+11% | 6th |
| 5 |
ABLON
14/1
·market 7%
|
13% |
7% |
14/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+88% | 9th |
| 6 |
BARLEY
7/1
·market 12%
|
8% |
12% |
7/1
▼ Edge decreasing
|
-36% | 4th |
| 7 |
GOOD MORNING ALEX
8/1
·market 11%
|
7% |
11% |
8/1
|
-36% | Winner |
| 8 |
IZZARI
22/1
·market 4%
|
7% |
4% |
22/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+54% | 7th |
| 9 |
QUIET RESOLVE
50/1
·market 2%
|
4% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+107% | 8th |
| 10 |
ESCAPE ACT
50/1
·market 2%
|
3% |
2% |
50/1
▲ Edge increasing
|
+59% | 10th |
How to read this: "Model Chance" is our calibrated win probability for each horse. "Market Implies" is the chance suggested by the live price. When the model's number is meaningfully higher than the market's, we flag it as value. The available odds may be bigger than our fair price. Full explanation of how it works →
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EdgeDigger is a data analytics tool, not a tipster service. Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. 18+ · please gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org